Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center

US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

Introduction:

Good morning! This is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory. Today is Saturday, November 22 at 9:00 A.M.

General Conditions:

Quite a surprise we have today. Who would of guessed snow in Moab when you woke up? In town, the current temperature is 28 degrees while at the Geyser Pass Trailhead it is 17 degrees. There is three inches in town so far, so expect a little more to fall up in the mountains. It started snowing around 6 A.M this morning, so snowing at a rate of an 1.0”/hour. Models indicate we should get about 0.25” of moisture out of this storm

Mountain Weather:

Our last forecast called the arrival of this snow early Saturday afternoon, although it came to as a surprise of how much! The storm’s trough arrived with more moisture than expected, and should be ending tonight with the trough moving east into western Colorado. Snowfall accumulations of 4”-8” in the mountains. Our SNOTEL station in the La Sals show that the temperature has dropped significantly from 47 degrees yesterday at 2:00 P.M. to 17 degrees at 6:00 A.M. this morning. The mountains should see highs today in the mid 20’s and lows tonight in the teens under mostly cloudy skies. Winds should remain light out of the west…the winds we experienced yesterday preceded the front and now the low pressure cell dips below us. For Sunday, and the beginning of next week, look for cold temperatures to remain in place with the next possibility of precipitation coming on Turkey Day.

Avalanche Conditions:

All this significant snowfall this early in the season is a great start to our season! With our temperatures starting off warm and now being cold, that helps the current precipitation bond better with the old snow surface. The one question remains: Did the 11/19 surface hoar event get destroyed before getting buried? With the high winds and warm temperatures we experienced yesterday, those two agents of destruction definitely helped out. But pockets of the surface hoar will still persist in wind-protected and colder northerly slopes. We observed the 11/19 event on all aspects up to 11,000 feet in elevation, and once buried, surface hoar is a very persistent layer, tough to visually see in a snow pit and very dangerous. There wasn’t much snow to transport before this storm, although with moderate winds and high relative humidities, there is a chance to create wind slabs on leeward aspects. Avalanche activity increases during and just after an event. Our hazard rating for today: Below treeline: LOW on E-S-W aspects and MODERATE on N aspects. Above treeline: MODERATE on all N-E-S slopes, especially being careful on slopes greater than 35 degrees.

Nordic and Skate Skiing:

The road has a good base, and now all we need is some snowcat and snowmobile traffic to improve things. Skating would not be advised just yet, but classic you could get away with.

Public Announcements:

We would like to Welcome Max Forgensi from Breckenridge to our team. We would also like any one who is interested in our volunteer/observer program to contact us at 259-7155. Remember to put fresh batteries in your beacons! This advisory will be updated on Sunday morning.