Logan Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Toby Weed

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Overall, there's a MODERATE (2) danger in the backcountry. Triggered avalanches are possible and there are elevated avalanche conditions in many areas. Pockets with a CONSIDERABLE (3) danger exist in steep upper and mid elevation terrain and in outlying areas like the Wellsville Mountain and Mount Naomi Wildernesses. Although growing more unlikely, very dangerous deep slab avalanches are still possible on steep slopes plagued by weak sugary snow near the ground. You might trigger a dangerous avalanche on a steep slope with shallow overall snow-cover... Triggered persistent slab avalanches 1 to 1.5 feet deep are also still possible in some areas, primarily on shady mid-elevation slopes steeper than around 30 degrees.

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential for safe backcountry travel.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

This morning at the 9700' Campbell Scientific weather station atop Logan Peak winds are out of the northeast averaging around 12 mph and its 22 degrees. Inexplicably, (perhaps due to a tree bomb or two,) the Tony Grove Snotel reports 4/10ths of an inch of water accumulation in the last 48 hours. But there's still only 72" of total snow on the ground containing 70% of average water for the date.

RECENT ACTIVITY

No activity reported from the Logan Area since Friday, when a rider unintentionally triggered a shallow soft slab on a very low angled slope near White's Bedground east of Logan Peak and a snowboarder triggered a small slide landing a cliff drop in the Tony Grove Area....

A week ago now, a skier accidently triggered and was carried and partially buried by foot-deep soft slab that broke when he stopped and fell just below his party on a northwest facing slope at around 8200' in upper Green Canyon...

Here's an updated local backcountry avalanche list:


THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Weak sugary or faceted snow near the ground is notoriously slow to heal, but I'm afraid we're not out of the woods yet and I have a feeling that we'll see a few more huge deep slab avalanches in the region before season's end. It's been at least week since any of these nasty monsters were released, but this year a week doesn't seem very long...I'm particularly concerned by huge natural deep slab avalanches on upper elevation east and west facing slopes in the Mount Naomi Wilderness..Like: Cougar Peak and South Fork of High Creek Inevitable spring warming will cause slabs to creep and soften, and this alone could be enough to cause natural avalanches in steep terrain, and timing of such events is fairly unpredictable....

Deep slab avalanches might be initiated from a shallower area on the slab, so watch out for steep rocky or terrain with generally shallow snow cover.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

A weak layer consisting of feathery frost crystals or surface hoar, buried and preserved by light snowfall on February 10th, is widespread across the region. This produced numerous triggered and natural avalanches since it was buried. Many recent triggered avalanches occurred on less steep than expected slopes. Slope angle estimates from these reported avalanches commonly range from 30 to 35 degrees. Although they are getting harder to find and more difficult to trigger, this week's persistent slab avalanches probably won't be as manageable or forgiving as last week's. In some areas you still might might trigger a dangerous avalanche from a distance or from below.

THREAT #3
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 10 hours.

A March-high sun angle will soften the snow on sunny slopes even though the air temperature may not get all that hot. Sheltered bowl areas with a tilt towards the sun could act like solar reflecting ovens, drastically heating the snow on some sunny slopes... Wet avalanches will become possible in the midday heat on slopes with saturated surface snow.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

A high pressure ridge will build over the region today and drift off to the east tomorrow. Expect fair weather conditions in the mountains today with calm to light winds and high temperatures in the shade around freezing. A south wind will increase tomorrow as the next weak Pacific storm pushes into the area... Building clouds, some snowfall, and perhaps a bit of thunder possible late Wednesday, and stormy conditions with a little snowfall likely on Thursday

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

I will be issuing morning avalanche advisories for the Logan area on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays.

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Send us your avalanche and snow observations. You can also call me at 435-757-7578 or the SLC office at 800-662-4140, or email to uac@utahavalanchecenter.org

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

I will update this forecast Wednesday morning. Thanks for checking in....

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.