Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Monday - February 19, 2018 - 7:22am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is expected to rise to CONSIDERABLE today on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E where new snow and wind loading add stress to buried weak layers in the snowpack. Human triggered avalanches will grow increasingly more likely in these areas throughout the day and natural avalanches will be possible. Backcountry travelers need to be alert to changing conditions and avoid steep terrain that has recent deposits of wind drifted snow. At mid elevations out of the wind zone, the avalanche danger is MODERATE. Low elevations offer mostly LOW danger.




special announcement

Episode 5 of the UAC podcast "To Hell in a Heartbeat - A Conversation With Tom Diegel and Matt Clevenger About the 12.26.08 Full Burial on Little Water" is live. Matt and Tom talk about the avalanche documented in To Hell in a Heartbeat. Check it out on ITunes, Stitcher, the UAC blog.​

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current conditions

No new snow has fallen overnight and the story is the wind. Southerly winds averaged 20 mph most of the day yesterday and overnight with gusts into the 40's stripping away snow on exposed slopes, and depositing new wind slabs in upper elevation terrain on northerly aspects. Coverage remains thin and these winds haven't helped. Kevin Dressel was up yesterday and submitted this report.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The snow on the ground is very weak consisting of loose, sugary, faceted snow. The new snow from last week has formed a cohesive layer or slab on top of the old snow. Any additional snow or wind loading will add further stress to the snowpack and human triggered avalanches 1-2' deep will become increasingly more likely on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E.

Photo of stability test illustrates how the most recent snow has formed a cohesive layer or slab that can slide off the older, weaker snow underneath. Additional snow will exacerbate the problem.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Increasing winds and snow on the way translate to developing wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Be on the lookout for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow that form on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. A triggered wind slab has the potential to step down triggering a deeper and more dangerous, persistent slab avalanche.

weather

Today look for periods of snow and blustery southwest winds. 3-7" are possible. Temps at 10,000' will be in the low to mid 20's.

general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.