Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - February 18, 2018 - 7:29am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today but is expected to increase and become more widespread as an approaching storm system moves into our area. By tomorrow the danger will reach CONSIDERABLE or even HIGH. Timing is everything and backcountry travelers will need to be alert to changing conditions as wind and new snow increase the avalanche danger. For now, the danger is greatest on steep, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E where human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep are possible.




avalanche watch

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN MOAB HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 AM MST MONDAY

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA IS CONSIDERABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO HIGH OVERNIGHT.

* IMPACTS…STRONG WINDS TODAY WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES BECOMING LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD CONSULT WWW.UTAHAVALANCHECENTER.ORG OR CALL 1-888-999-4019 FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.
special announcement

Episode 5 of the UAC podcast "To Hell in a Heartbeat - A Conversation With Tom Diegel and Matt Clevenger About the 12.26.08 Full Burial on Little Water" is live. Matt and Tom talk about the avalanche documented in To Hell in a Heartbeat. Check it out on ITunes, Stitcher, the UAC blog.​

The UAC Marketplace is still open. Our online marketplace still has deals on skis, packs, airbag packs, beacons, snowshoes, soft goods and much more.
current conditions

What a difference a week can make! Storms with heavy, dense snow last week have more than doubled the snowpack, and up to 30" of snow now exists on upper elevation, northerly facing terrain. Slopes that were bare ground a week ago now have up to a foot of snow on them, and off trail riding is even starting to be possible in some areas. The photos below were taken on 2-9-18, and then again on 2-16-18




Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The snow on the ground is very weak consisting of loose, sugary, faceted snow. The new snow from last week has formed a cohesive layer or slab on top of the old snow. The additional snow load from the incoming storm will add further stress to the snowpack and avalanches 2-3' deep will become increasingly more likely on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-E.

Photo of stability test illustrates how the most recent snow has formed a cohesive layer or slab that can slide off the older, weaker snow underneath. Additional snow will exacerbate the problem.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Increasing winds and snow on the way translate to developing wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Be on the lookout for smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow that form on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. A triggered wind slab has the potential to step down triggering a deeper and more dangerous, persistent slab avalanche.

weather

Blustery will best describe conditions today as SW winds increase to 20-30 mph with gusts into the 40's ahead of the approaching storm. Clear skies this morning will give way to clouds this afternoon. High temps at 10,000' will be near 30 degrees.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.