Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - February 11, 2018 - 7:25am
bottom line

With the overall lack of snow cover, the avalanche danger is generally LOW. A remote possibility exists for triggering a shallow avalanche in extreme, upper elevation, north facing terrain.




special announcement

Due to lack of snow cover, we will be discontinuing regular avalanche advisories after this weekend. We will continue to monitor conditions and will resume if snowfall dictates.

current conditions

The mountains picked up 4" of new snow yesterday, but it may be too little too late. I took a trip up North Creek on Friday, and was stunned to see how much the sun and warm temperatures of the past week had diminished the snow pack. Virtually all southerly aspects are void of snow, and coverage on shady terrain ranges from less than a foot at lower elevations to 18" max on favored, upper elevation northerly aspects. The trailhead at Dalton Springs is nearly melted out, and dry patches are appearing on the North Creek Road.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak (11,000')

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')

Pretty much says it all.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next hours
description

You have to have snow for avalanches and there isn't much. And yesterday's 4" is not enough to significantly increase the avalanche danger. North facing terrain holds up to 18" of snow at upper elevations, and near the ground the snow is very loose and weak. If you wandered into some very steep, extreme, north facing terrain, you may be able to trigger a persistent slab avalanche failing on loose, sugary facets, but these areas are far and few between, and are easily avoided. The lack of coverage alone is enough to keep you out of this kind of terrain.
weather

Dry and cooler weather will prevail today with the next system sliding into our area on Monday. It looks like we might get another decent shot of snow.
general announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.