Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - March 28, 2017 - 7:21am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE this morning, but will rise throughout the day possibly reaching CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon. Human triggered storm snow and wind slab avalanches are possible and backcountry travelers need to be alert to changing conditions. Watch for fresh drifting from wind blown snow, and look for signs of increasing instability such as cracking in the snow surface. The danger will be greatest on steep, upper elevation slopes that face N-E-SE. Duck out of the wind zone and dial back your slope angle as the day progresses.




special announcement

The Abajo/Blue Mountain avalanche advisory will provide detailed information on the weekends. During the week, general information and a danger rating will be posted.

current conditions

Camp Jackson is reporting 4" of new snow this morning with 6" at Buckboard Flat bringing a welcome a dose of white to our dwindling snow pack. Northerly winds are mostly light this morning but are expected to increase throughout the day. 9000' temperatures are around 30 degrees and it's 20 degrees on Abajo Peak.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

With winds expected to increase, and with more snow in the forecast, watch for a rising wind slab danger today in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Be alert to changing conditions and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. Avoid steep slopes with smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Today we may see loose, dry sluffs, or cohesive soft slabs running within the new snow on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees. They won't pack a huge punch but they could entrain a fair amount of snow once they get moving. Try your luck on smaller test slopes to se how the snow reacts before jumping into larger terrain.

weather

Today

Snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Patchy blowing snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight

A chance of snow before 2am, then a slight chance of snow after 3am. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Windy, with a north northwest wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Wednesday

Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 10am. Sunny, with a high near 38. Windy, with a north wind 25 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 31. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night

Rain likely before 9pm, then rain and snow likely between 9pm and 11pm, then snow likely after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy blowing snow between 9am and 10am. High near 32. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.