Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - March 5, 2017 - 7:09am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE today and backcountry travelers will need to be alert to newly formed wind slabs in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche on a buried weak layer on steep slopes right around tree line and above that face NW-N-NE. Most other terrain offers LOW danger.
special announcement

The Abajo/Blue Mountain avalanche advisory will provide detailed information on the weekends. During the week, general information and a danger rating will be posted.

current conditions

The story is the wind. Southeasterly winds have been blowing in the 30-40 mph range for the past 24 hours along ridge tops. Today they will shift to the SW with gusts to 60 mph. It's a warm 33 degrees at Camp Jackson and 19 up on Abajo Peak. Snow surfaces range from sun crusted to wind scoured with a few areas of settled powder left in sheltered areas.

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Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Small wind slabs will be your primary concern today, especially in the high country. Though there isn't a lot of loose snow available for transport, winds of this intensity will scour into the snow surface on windward slopes, picking up snow and transporting it to leeward slopes. Slabs today won't be well connected, but rather more of an isolated nature, sometimes appearing as ribbons along the leeward sides of gully walls and other terrain features. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow, especially if they have a hollow feel or sound to them.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Areas with weak, underlying snow exist, and on Friday Brian Murdock and I experienced collapsing and whumphing along upper elevation ridge crests. Whumphing was also reported earlier in the week when the new snow came in. Though not widespread, this phenomenon tells me that the underlying snowpack is still trying to adjust to the most recent snow load, and that there are a few areas out there where you could trigger an avalanche. Most likely areas are on steep slopes right around tree line and above that face the north half of the compass.

weather

Southwest winds will be on the increase today ahead of a storm system that will begin to affect the area this evening. Gusts may exceed 60 mph. High temperatures at 10,000' will be in the upper 30's. Most of the energy is passing to the north but we could see few inches of snow by Monday.
general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.