Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - February 12, 2017 - 7:09am
bottom line

Today look for an increasing MODERATE danger for newly deposited wind slabs, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain that faces NW-N-E. Snow totals today will directly influence the degree of danger, and backcountry travelers will need to be alert to changing conditions. Avoid newly deposited wind drifts in steep terrain, and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. There is also a MODERATE danger for loose, wet slide activity, primarily at lower elevations. Avoid steep slopes with a wet, or punchy, unsupportable surface.
special announcement

The Abajo/Blue Mountain avalanche advisory will provide detailed information on the weekends. During the week, general information and a danger rating will be posted.

current conditions

Camp Jackson isn't reporting any new snow this morning but it looks like like some may be on the way. Temperatures at 9000' are just above freezing and winds are mostly light out of the SE. Extremely warm temperatures over the past few days have turned the snowpack at mid and lower elevations into the consistency of a snow cone, and strong winds from the southwest have hammered the upper elevations. Under mostly cloudy skies, I think it's going to be a but rugged out there this morning.


In my travels up and around the south end of South Peak yesterday I found mostly damp, wind and sun affected snow. Overall coverage in the range however is looking pretty good but for the most sun and wind exposed ridge lines.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

An increase in avalanche danger will directly correlate to snow fall amounts today. As new snow accumulates, be alert to fresh wind drifts and developing wind slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. New wind slabs will be mostly shallow and should fit into the "manageable" category, but give them a little test before committing to steep terrain.
weather

Today

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33. Breezy, with a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow, mainly before 10pm. Patchy blowing snow between 8pm and midnight. Low around 27. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.