Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - January 15, 2017 - 7:31am
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The avalanche danger is MODERATE today on steep, upper elevation slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Watch for recently formed wind drifts on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, and avoid steep slopes that have smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Out of the wind zone at mid and lower elevations the danger is mostly LOW.




special announcement

The Abajo/Blue Mountain avalanche advisory will provide detailed information on the weekends. During the week, general information and a danager rating will be posted.

current conditions

Another 2" of new snow fell in the Abajo/Blue Mountains overnight bringing us up to 6-8" of new snow since Friday. In my travels on Friday, I found plenty of new soft snow to scoot around in, and coverage is significantly improved. Wind exposed slopes are still showing some grass, but leeward and sheltered slopes are filling in quite nicely and snow depths now range from 2-3' at mid and upper elevations.

For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Winds yesterday were blowing a fair amount of snow around forming new, shallow wind slabs on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. These new, soft slabs are also covering up harder slab that have formed as a result of the strong southwest winds of the past week. Avoid steep slopes that have smooth, rounded, drifted appearance, and look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The underlying snow pack is very weak with loose, sugary faceted snow at the ground. We are starting to develop a load over top of this weak foundation, and a triggered, over riding wind slab has the potential to break down to this buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Areas where you are most likely to find this problem are on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass.

weather

Mostly cloudy skies and a lingering chance of showers today will give way to high pressure moving in for the first half of the week. A stormy pattern returns by Thursday.

Today

Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

M.L.King Day

A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 28. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 32. North wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 23.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 34.