Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains | utahavalanchecenter.org

Avalanche Advisory

Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains	Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Wednesday - January 4, 2017 - 7:12am

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Today there is an isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger in the Abajo/Blue Mountains, particularly on steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E. Be wary of smooth rounded deposits of wind drifted snow on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as sub ridges and gully walls. Snow cover remains very thin, and taking a ride in an avalanche in such shallow snow conditions would be a very bumpy ride across the ground. Elsewhere the avalanche danger is generally LOW.

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current conditions

The Abajo Peak wind sensor is down this morning but regionally, winds have been steady out of the southwest at 20-30 mph in upper elevations. Snow conditions remain thin and the surface in exposed locations is beginning to look like a moonscape. Many south facing slopes have been stripped to the ground.

For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

Still pretty thin up on south facing slopes above North Creek Pass.

Winter hungry folks are still finding enough snow to slide around on however.

Avalanche Problem 1

type	aspect/elevation	characteristics
		LIKELIHOOD LIKELY UNLIKELY SIZE LARGE SMALL TREND INCREASING DANGER SAME DECREASING DANGER over the next 24 hours
description I don't expect forecasted snow totals to raise the avalanche danger much today. By Thursday however, it could be a different story. The snowpack is very shallow and weak, and today there are some isolated areas where you might be able to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here are two things to consider: -Wind Slabs: Isolated deposits of wind drifted snow may be lurking on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow and may sound hollow underneath. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. -Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure. Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

type

aspect/elevation

characteristics

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

UNLIKELY

SIZE

LARGE

SMALL

TREND

INCREASING DANGER

SAME

DECREASING DANGER

over the next 24 hours

description

I don't expect forecasted snow totals to raise the avalanche danger much today. By Thursday however, it could be a different story. The snowpack is very shallow and weak, and today there are some isolated areas where you might be able to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here are two things to consider:

-Wind Slabs: Isolated deposits of wind drifted snow may be lurking on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow and may sound hollow underneath. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

weather

Today

Snow. Widespread blowing snow after 4pm. High near 28. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. Widespread blowing snow. Patchy fog between 2am and 4am. Low around 23. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 2pm. High near 27. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 9. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 20. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

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