Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Tuesday - January 3, 2017 - 6:22am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW in the Abajo/Blue Mountains but there are isolated areas of MODERATE danger where a person might be able to trigger an avalanche. Steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E warrant caution. Snow cover remains very thin, and taking a ride in an avalanche in such shallow snow conditions would be a very bumpy road across the ground.




special announcement
current conditions

Snow conditions remain thin in the Abajo/Blue Mountains. For real time weather data click on the links below:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.


Still pretty thin up on south facing slopes above North Creek Pass.

Winter hungry folks are still finding enough snow to slide around on however.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche danger is mostly low in the Abajos largely due to low snow cover. The snowpack is very shallow and weak however, and there are some isolated areas where you might be able to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here are two things to consider:

-Wind Slabs: Isolated deposits of wind drifted snow may be lurking on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow and may sound hollow underneath. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

weather

Tuesday

A slight chance of snow before 9am, then a slight chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight

A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 8pm. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Wednesday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Breezy, with a west wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Wednesday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow. Widespread blowing snow after 11am. High near 27. Breezy, with a west wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night

Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 20.