Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - January 1, 2017 - 7:18am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW in the Abajo/Blue Mountains but isolated areas exist where a person might be able to trigger an avalanche. Steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E still warrant caution. An increase in snow and wind could bump the danger up to MODERATE in these areas. Snow cover remains very thin, and taking a ride in an avalanche in such shallow snow conditions would be a very bumpy road across the ground.




special announcement
current conditions

Skies are mostly cloudy this morning and WNW winds are light, Expect them to increase and shift to the SW as a fast moving Pacific storm system brushes by later today. The Christmas storm brought another foot of snow to the high elevations but it's still pretty thin out. It's currently 15 degrees on Abajo Peak, and 25 at Camp Jackson.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.


Still pretty thin up on south facing slopes above North Creek Pass.

Winter hungry folks are still finding enough snow to slide around on however.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche danger is mostly low in the Abajos largely due to low snow cover. The snowpack is very shallow and weak however, and there are some isolated areas where you might be able to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here are two things to consider:

-Wind Slabs: Isolated deposits of wind drifted snow may be lurking on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow and may sound hollow underneath. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description
weather

A series of fast moving Pacific storm systems will begin to affect our area later today, with an unsettled pattern continuing for most of the week.

New Year's Day

Snow likely, mainly after 8am. Areas of blowing snow after 8am. Widespread fog before 9am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.W