Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - December 31, 2016 - 7:03am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW in the Abajo/Blue Mountains but isolated areas exist where a person might be able to trigger an avalanche. Steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E still warrant caution. An increase in snow and wind could bump the danger up to MODERATE in these areas. Snow cover remains very thin, and taking a ride in an avalanche in such shallow snow conditions would be a very bumpy road across the ground.




special announcement
current conditions

It was another sunny and mild day up in the mountains yesterday, and in spite of the Christmas storm it's still pretty thin out. Soft snow can still be found in sheltered areas but there are still a lot of weeds and gras poking out. Today will be mostly cloudy as a Pacific storm system tracks south below the UT/CO border. Light SSE winds yesterday shifted to WSW this morning and it's currently 21 degrees on Abajo Peak.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.


Still pretty thin up on south facing slopes above North Creek Pass.

Winter hungry folks are still finding enough snow to slide around on however.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The avalanche danger is mostly low in the Abajos largely due to low snow cover. The snowpack is very shallow and weak however, and there are some isolated areas where you might be able to trigger an avalanche, primarily on steep, upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. Here are two things to consider:

-Wind Slabs: Isolated deposits of wind drifted snow may still be lurking on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges, in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. They are recognizable as smooth, rounded pillows of snow and may sound hollow underneath. A triggered wind slab has the potential to break down into buried weak layers creating a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.

-Persistent Slab: The underlying snowpack is very weak, and several inches of faceted, sugar snow exist at the ground level. This upside down set up creates an unstable base for a load of snow on top, and in some isolated areas, the additional weight of a rider could trigger an avalanche down to this buried weak layer. you are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, upper elevation, north facing terrain where wind deposited snow has drifted over top of this weak structure.

Photo illustrates the current, weak snowpack structure. Note the weak, sugary layer of faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description
weather

A Pacific storm system tracking south of the UT/CO border will bring clouds and a chance of snow to the mountains today. A stronger system tonight and tomorrow will increase the chance of snow. Unsettled weather and a blast of arctic air is on tap for next week.

Today

Snow likely, mainly between 8am and 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. North northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Tonight

Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

New Year's Day

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Monday

Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Windy, with a west southwest wind 25 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.