Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Wednesday - December 28, 2016 - 6:58am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is MODERATE​ today in steep, upper elevation terrain where blustery winds and blowing snow over the weekend created newly formed wind slabs. On slopes that face NW-N-E, a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. For LOW danger stick to the lower elevations.




special announcement
current conditions

The Abajo Mountains picked up about a foot of snow over Christmas weekend, and base depth at Camp Jackson is 22". Overall, It's still pretty thin coverage with a lot of grass and bushes poking out, but things are improving.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Moderate to strong, gusty winds with plenty of loose snow available for transport over the weekend translated to drifting snow and the formation of new wind slabs. Avoid areas of recently deposited, wind drifted snow and look for tell tale signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a deeper persistent slab.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The underlying snowpack is very weak, and additional snow load from overriding wind slabs has increased the danger for trigger a deeper persistent slab avalanche. You are most likely to find this problem on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect.

weather

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 32. West northwest wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. Northwest wind around 15 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 33. Northwest wind around 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 22.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.