Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - December 25, 2016 - 6:40am
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The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE​ today in steep, upper elevation terrain where blustery winds and blowing snow have created fresh drifts and newly formed wind slabs. On slopes that face NW-N-E, a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down causing a deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche. The danger is MODERATE at mid elevations. For LOW danger stick to the lower elevations.




special announcement
current conditions

Camp Jackson picked up another 2" of snow for a total of 10" since Friday. Base depth there is now around 20". Overall, It's still pretty thin coverage with a lot of grass and bushes poking out, but things are improving. WNW winds blew in the 20-30 mph range yesterday, but they have backed off into the single digits this morning. Expect them to ramp up considerably today. It's currently 5 degrees on Abajo Peak and 18 at Camp Jackson.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Strong, gusty winds and plenty of loose snow available for transport translate to drifting snow and the formation of new wind slabs. Avoid areas of recently deposited, wind drifted snow and look for tell tale signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a deeper persistent slab.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The underlying snowpack is very weak, and additional snow load from overriding wind slabs has increased the danger for trigger a deeper persistent slab avalanche. You are most likely to find this problem on steep, upper elevation slopes that have a NW-N-E aspect.

weather

Christmas Day

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. Windy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 8. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 19. West wind around 10 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 14. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.