Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Thursday - December 15, 2016 - 7:34am
bottom line

Due to low snow cover, the avalanche danger is generally LOW in the Abajo Mountains. But a powerful storm on our doorstep could be the game changer. Expect the avalanche danger to rise over the next few days.




special announcement
current conditions

Snow cover in the Abajo Mountains is still quite thin and there isn't enough snow to recreate on beyond the road. There is only a few inches of snow on the ground at the trailheads and in the lower elevations.


Forest Service volunteer Chris Jacobson tops out at North Creek Pass. Pretty low snow up there.


On the backside near Robinson Pasture. Snow here was even thin on the road so we turned around.

Wind, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

There isn't currently enough snow to pose much of an avalanche danger, but a powerful storm on our doorstep could be the game changer. Of note is the current snow pack structure. The weak shallow now is already deteriorating, and this doesn't bode well for future snow loads.


Chris Jacobson digs out weak, faceted grains, or "sugar snow" out from the bottom of the existing shallow snow pack. This makes an unstable base for future snow loads.

weather

A powerful storm system is on the way bringing strong winds and heavy snow starting tonight and lasting until Saturday.

Today

A chance of rain showers after 1pm, mixing with snow after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Very windy, with a west southwest wind 30 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tonight

A chance of rain and snow showers before 7pm, then snow showers. Widespread blowing snow after 11pm. Low around 29. Very windy, with a southwest wind 35 to 40 mph increasing to 40 to 45 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers before 1pm, then rain and snow showers between 1pm and 3pm, then snow showers after 3pm. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow before 10am, then widespread blowing snow after 4pm. High near 34. Very windy, with a west southwest wind 50 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 8. Wind chill values as low as -15. Very windy, with a west southwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 30 to 35 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 15. Windy, with a north northwest wind 30 to 35 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.