Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Friday - April 8, 2016 - 6:54am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning but will rise to MODERATE as the day heats up. Be alert to signs of wet instability such as roller balls, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow, and stay off of, and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present. Give cornices a wide berth when walking on ridge crests and avoid being under them, especially as daytime heating progresses.
special announcement

This is our last weekend for scheduled advisories. Thanks to everyone who supported the program this season!
current conditions

High clouds are streaming over the region ahead of the first in a series of weak disturbances that will affect our area through most of next week. Winds on Abajo Peak have been on the increase for the past few hours and are currently blowing in the 20-30 mph range from the SE. Last night's refreeze was marginal with temps above 11,000' dropping to right around 30 degrees early this morning. It's currently 41 at Buckboard Flat.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 12 hours
description

Overall, things have been pretty quiet as far as wet slide activity goes, and with clouds moving in today, you would expect that trend to continue. My concern today is the lack of an overnight re-freeze. It won't take much sun today to loosen the surface snow on sun exposed slopes.

Additionally, there exists the potential to trigger a wet slab in areas where the snow pack is shallow and saturated clear through. Yesterday, I found areas where stopping on a sled would result in it dropping down into unsupportable, loose wet snow underneath, and if I got off the machine, I would punch right through up to my waist. Not a good sign.

Be alert to a rapidly warming snowpack today. Watch for the usual signs of instability such as pinwheels, rollerballs, and sloppy wet, or punchy snow, and stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
weather

High clouds are streaming over the region ahead of the first in a series of weak disturbances that will affect our area through most of next week. We'll see a chance of showers developing today with the best chance at measurable precipitation tonight with 1-2" possible.

Today

A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and noon, then a chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. South southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight

Rain and snow showers likely, mainly between 9pm and 5am. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a low around 29. South southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Southwest wind around 15 mph. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday Night

A slight chance of rain and snow showers before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. South southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. South southwest wind around 15 mph.
general announcements

Let me know what you are seeing down there by posting an observation here.  You can also call me on my cell phone at 801-647-8896

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.