Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Bruce Tremper for Tuesday - February 2, 2016 - 6:53am
bottom line

There is a CONSIDERABLE danger of human triggered avalanches today, meaning "Dangerous conditions. Choose conservative terrain." You'll likely find human triggered avalanche potential in two types of terrain: 1) on the buried, persistent weak layers in the preexisting snow on the shady aspects, such as northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes. 2) on any steep slope with recent wind deposits.
avalanche warning

I have allowed the Avalanche Warning to expire.
current conditions

Hello, this is Bruce Tremper, filling in for Eric Trenbeath for the next week.

It was quite a storm. We did not get nearly as much snow as forecast, but it's still significant: Here's storm totals I can gather from the automated weather stations:

La Sal Mountains:
Gold Basin - 16.6" snow, 3 deg. F this morning
La Sal SNOTEL (Geyser Pass trailhead) 8" snow, 1.3" SWE (snow water equivalent), 8 deg F this morning
Pre Laural wind site: 22 mph, gusting to 33 from the north, temperature -3 deg F this morning

Abajo Mountains
Camp Jackson - 19" snow, 1.7" SWE
​Buckboard Flat - 12" snow, 1.3" SWE
​Abajo Peak - 10 mph, gusting to 20, -4 deg F this morning

Yesterday, I couldn't even make it into the mountains because of all the new snow, so I took a well-deserved day off and it was sure nice in Arches...

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Since I did not make it to the mountains yesterday and have no other reports, I'll take a guess at what's going on. Any instabilities within the new snow should, in theory, settle out fairly quickly as it came in fairly warm and now it's quite cold. I'm most worried about any new snow slabs sliding on persistent weak layers that formed on the preexisting snow surface during the clear weather this past week, plus repeater slide paths that retained their thin, weak snow. You will find these mainly on the shady aspects, such as northwest, north, northeast and east facing slopes mostly at higher elevations but I was also seeing some surface hoar in basin bottoms where the cold air pools.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The north wind is blowing this morning and it's forecast to increase and remain blustery for the next day or so. The wind will likely redistribute snow onto downwind terrain and create stiff wind slabs. As always, avoid steep slopes with recent wind deposits. They will looks smooth and rounded. They will also feel "slabby" meaning hard on top with soft snow underneath and they often sound hollow like a drum.
weather

The storm is over but we will continue to have cold, moderately strong winds from the north and northwest for the next couple days. Winds should blow 20, gusting to 40 along the exposed terrain with temperatures near zero.

We may get a few lingering snow showers this morning and we have a slight chance of additional snow on Thursday and Friday.

Here's the National Weather Service link to the point forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
general announcements

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.  You can also call me on my cell phone at 801-231-4744

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.