Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Bruce Tremper for Monday - February 1, 2016 - 7:05am
bottom line

The danger will depend on the amount of new snow, and especially, on the amount of wind. So carefully test the new snow as you travel by regularly digging down with your hand to see how well it's bonded to the underlying snow and regularly jump on small, test slopes to see how they respond. The avalanche danger will range from MODERATE to HIGH depending on your choice of terrain.
avalanche warning

I am issuing an avalanche warning this morning for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains.  With the expected additional snow today and the expected increased winds tonight and on Tuesday, we will likely have a high danger of avalanches, especially in the upper elevation, wind exposed terrain.
special announcement

Here's an experimental, video forecast that I put together last night. Let me know what you think.
current conditions

Hello, this is Bruce Tremper, filling in for Eric Trenbeath for the next week.

The Camp Jackson SNOTEL site shows 10 inches of snow in the past 24 hours with 1.2 inches of water. The National Weather Service forecasts 5-9 inches of additional snow today. On Abajo Peak, the winds were 24, gusting to 38 overnight and temperatures this morning are 12 degrees.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.
recent activity
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The danger today will depend mostly on the amount of new snow, and especially, on the amount of wind. Weather forecasts are one of the most uncertain things in life, especially in rural areas, so you will need to carefully test the snow as you travel today. Be sure to regularly dig down with your hand and see how well the new snow is bonding to the underlying layers, plus regularly jump on small, test slopes to see how they respond. Especially on slopes where the wind has been blowing , you'll find denser, wind slabs that will crack with your weight. I was certainly finding some yesterday on the wind exposed ridges in the La Sal Mountains.

The pre-existing snowpack is mostly stable but the weakest layers are on the pre-existing snow surface. In some of the upper elevation, steep, shaded slopes, I have been finding more near-surface faceted snow just under the snow surface, especially in repeater slide paths. As the snow piles up, we should see some storm slabs sliding both on the preexisting sun crusts and on the weak, preexisting faceted snow and surface hoar on the shady aspects.
weather

The National Weather Service forecasts 7 - 11 inches of additional snow today with wind from the southwest 30, gusting to 40. Tonight, the wind should switch to the north and it should get even more blustery tonight and on Tuesday. Temperatures should be in the low 20's today, dropping into the mid to low teens tomorrow.

The storm should clear out by mid day on Tuesday with nice weather for the rest of the week.

Here's the National Weather Service link to the point forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
general announcements

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.