Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Bruce Tremper for Saturday - January 30, 2016 - 6:26am
bottom line

Although today, the avalanche danger is mostly LOW this morning, it should rapidly rise to CONSIDERABLE by late afternoon and overnight because of dense new snow combined with wind. Another shot of snow on Sunday night should add perhaps another foot of new snow causing the avalanche danger to rise to HIGH. Be sure to closely monitor weather forecasts and I'll continue to update this forecast through the next several days.




avalanche watch

Yesterday, I issued an Avalanche Watch for the mountains of southeastern Utah and it may turn to a Warning overnight, depending on how much snow we get. We're expecting heavy snow Saturday afternoon and night with another shot of snow on Sunday night.  Total snow may add up to a couple feet.  Stay tuned for this potentially major winter storm.

special announcement

This advisory provides updated detailed snow and avalanche conditions on weekends, with an update Monday morning. This information is to be used as a baseline for the upcoming week, and users need to be aware of the changing nature of avalanche conditions. New snow, winds, and a rapid rise in temperature all translate to a rise in avalanche danger. Use the links below to stay abreast of current conditions.

current conditions

Hello, this is Bruce Tremper, filling in for Eric Trenbeath while he's away for the next 10 days.

I visited the Abajo Mountains yesterday with Dustin Randall and his wife Natalie and we found about 6 inches of soft, settled snow and recrystallized snow on the shady slopes with plenty of breakable sun crusts on all the sunny aspects. It's cloudy and very warm this morning with temperatures near freezing in the mountains. The high elevation wind station in the La Sal Mountains have picked up and are blowing 25, gusting to 30 from the southwest. It has not started snowing yet but there is dense, mountains snow falling in northern Utah and it should be here later in the afternoon and evening.

Yesterday, I shot a video of the current snowpack conditions, but unfortunately, I had some technical file transfer problems and I could not put together a video last night. But here is one I did of similar snowpack conditions in the La Sal mountains on Thursday:

Here's a link to a video I created on Thursday of the current snowpack conditions in the La Sal Mountains:

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.

Snow totals at Camp Jackson.

recent activity

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Although the avalanche danger is mostly LOW this morning it should rapidly rise through the day and especially afternoon and overnight. I'm expecting perhaps 6 inches of dense snow overnight and perhaps another foot of snow to fall on Sunday night. The present snow surface is very soft and weak on the shady, wind-sheltered aspects so I would expect storm slabs to fracture easily, especially on the slopes that face the north and east quadrants of the compass. Storm snow avalanches may also include wind slabs and some persistent slabs on top of pockets of surface hoar. Yesterday, we found lots of sun crusts on all the sun exposed slopes and storm snow may slide on top of the slick surfaces as well.

weather

Big News: Big storm for the weekend.

Expect windy, warm, cloudy weather today with increasing snow showers especially later in the day with heavy, dense snow late afternoon and overnight. Temperatures should drop rapidly overnight with the arrival of a cold front along with gusty, strong winds. We should have a slight break in the weather on Sunday morning but we have another, probably stronger, shot of snow from a closed low forming over us for Sunday night into Monday. Total snow accumulations are forecast to be 30-40 inches in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado and we often get similar weather here. This is potentially a major winter storm so stay tuned.

Here's the National Weather Service link to the point forecast for the Abajo Mountains.

Here's the total, forecast accumulation of snow by Monday. This should get your attention.


general announcements

Thanks for sending in your observations. You can view Moab observations here. To post an observation go here.

To receive this advisory by email go here.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.