Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Sunday - January 17, 2016 - 7:30am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is generally MODERATE but areas of elevated concern exist on steep slopes that face NW-N E where the new snow load from last week has added additional stress to buried weak layers in the snowpack. In theses areas, it is possible for the additional weight of a rider to cause a deep and dangerous avalanche. There is also a MODERATE danger for wind slab avalanches in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.




special announcement

The Abajo / Blue Mountain advisory provides detailed snow and avalanche information on weekends, with a general danger rating during the week.

current conditions

Last week's storm really improved things and brought us close to having a real snowpack. We now have between 3-4' of snow on the ground. Wind and sun during the week has crusted over the snow surface in exposed locations, but soft snow still remains in sheltered areas.

Westerly winds overnight have averaged 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 40. They are currently 15-20 mph gusting to 30. It's currently 13 degrees on Abajo Peak and 27 at Buckboard Flat.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.


recent activity

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The underlying snowpack is very weak, consisting of sugary faceted snow. The storm snow from last week has settled into place on top but is now waiting for the additional weight of an unsuspecting rider to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche. This danger exists on steep, northerly facing aspects right around treeline and above. This type of terrain, especially if is featured with gullies, steep roll overs and convexities, should be avoided for awhile.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Wind slabs exist on the lee sides of upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features primarily on slopes with a NW-N-SE aspect. A triggered wind slab has the potential to step down into buried weak layers creating a dangerous deep slab avalanche that could run to the ground. Avoid areas of wind deposited snow recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance.

weather

Sunday

A 10 percent chance of snow before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

M.L.King Day

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Monday Night

Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11am. Areas of blowing snow before 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 27. North northwest wind around 15 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11pm. Areas of blowing snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Breezy.

Wednesday

A 50 percent chance of snow. Areas of blowing snow after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 25.

general announcements

This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.