Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Thursday - December 17, 2015 - 7:55am
bottom line

Today there is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on slopes steeper than 35 degrees in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain, particularly on slopes with a NW-E-SE aspect and riders should avoid these. areas today. At lower, more sheltered elevations the avalanche danger is MODERATE.




current conditions

I have no on the ground information from the week but on Monday The mountains picked up 10-12" of very low density new snow. The new snow has fallen on a very thin and shallow snowpack, and in some cases, bare ground and many obstacles will be lurking beneath the surface. Overnight winds have been on the increase from the WNW and they are currently averaging 20 mph with gusts into the 30's. It is a bone chilling 0 degrees up there right now.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Winds during the week haven't been dramatic but they have blown enough to move snow snow around. ​They have also been on the increase today so expect to find newly deposited wind slabs in wind exposed terrain on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features. This danger will be most prevalent on slopes that face NE-N-SE but cross loading during the week may have formed drifts on all aspects above trree line. A triggered wind slab avalanche also has the very real potential to step down into buried weak layers casuiing a much more dangerous and deeper persistent slab avalanche.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The new snow has landed on very weak, shallow, sugary snow that existed on the ground prior to the storm. Needless to say, it is a very unstable base for the additional snow load and persistent slab avalanches are likely. Slides would likely break 2-3 deep at the ground entraining a considerable amount of snow and taking you for rough and rocky ride over the ground surface. Avoid slopes steeper than about 30 degrees that face NW-N-E.

weather

Today

Mostly sunny, with a high near 19. Wind chill values as low as -15. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. West northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. South southwest wind 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Breezy.

Sunday

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 24.

general announcements

This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.