Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - December 12, 2015 - 7:26am
bottom line

Due to the thin snow cover the avalanche danger is generally LOW at this time. But low danger doesn't mean no danger and there are areas where isolated, stiff wind slabs have formed over the weak, underlying snow, primarily on slopes with a N-NE-E aspect. These slabs exist on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls, and if triggered could possibly take you for a bumpy ride.




special announcement

The Utah Avalanche Center Moab has begun issuing weekend advisories for the Abajo / Blue Mountains. General information will be provided during the week.

current conditions

We just can't get any love down here out of these passing storms and it looks like we picked up about an inch of new snow at Buckboard Flat overnight. It's a chilly 10 degrees on Abajo Peak, and winds are light and westerly. Look for them to be in the increase today.

Snow cover is quite thin offering little in the way of riding options beyond the road. There is about 8" on the ground at Dalton Springs and just over 2 feet near Cooley Pass. Wind and sun have taken their toll on the snow surface in exposed locations, and in some cases we are back down to bare ground.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.


Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

New snow today won't be much of an issue, but there may still be a few isolated, stiff wind slabs have formed on the lee sides of ridge crests and terrain features in wind exposed terrain primarily on slopes that face N-NE-E. In most cases, they are too shallow to be much of a problem but they are overlying very weak, faceted snow , and in some cases it may be possible to trigger one in more extreme terrain and have it take you for a very bumpy ride.

Areas of wind drifted snow have formed on the lee sides of these gully walls.


This cornice, and the smooth rounded pillow beneath it are indicators of wind drifted snow and hence, a potentially dangerous wind slab. If this situation was identified on a larger slope, it would warrant some serious caution.


Wind slabs are overlying weak, sugary, facted snow.

weather

The mountains may pick up a couple of inches of snow today before the system moves off to the east. Winds will be on the increase shifting to the northwest, and high temps at 10,000' will be in the mid 20's. We'll see mostly sunny skies on Sunday as a brief ridge builds ahead of the next similar storm system that will affect our area on Monday.

Today

Snow likely, mainly before 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Windy, with a north northwest wind 10 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 35 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight

A 20 percent chance of snow before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy, with a north wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph.

Sunday

A 10 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as -10. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

Sunday Night

A 20 percent chance of snow after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Windy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

Monday

Snow. High near 22. Windy, with a south southwest wind 30 to 35 mph becoming west northwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

general announcements

This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.