Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Abajo Area Mountains Issued by Eric Trenbeath for Saturday - November 21, 2015 - 6:50am
bottom line

There is an isolated or MODERATE danger for triggering shallow wind slabs primarily above treeline in wind exposed terrain. There is also a MODERATE danger for triggering a persistent slab on slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face the north half of the compass.




special announcement

The Utah Avalanche Center Moab has begun issuing weekend advisories for the Abajo / Blue Mountains. General information will be provided during the week.
current conditions

Low snow, early season conditions prevail in the Abajo / Blue Mountains though we are off to a good start. Snow cover in the range varies from about 12" at the Dalton Springs Trailhead to 30" in sheltered areas near Cooley Pass. Wind and sun exposed terrain has less coverage, and there is a lot of grass poking through as well as bare ground exposed.

Winds on Abajo Peak have averaged 15-20 mph for the past 24 hours with gusts as high as 40 mph Mostly westerly, they shifted to northwest around 8:00 p.m. last night. Daytime temps were in the mid 20's and it is currently 12 degrees.

Winds, temperature and humidity on Abajo Peak.

Snow totals at Buckboard Flat.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Isolated, stiff wind slabs exist in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Though mostly shallow and stubborn to release, there are isolated possibilities of having one of these slabs step down into weaker, older snow producing a slightly deeper avalanche down to the ground. The main concern right now would be getting knocked off your machine and taking a ride basically across the surface of the ground. Be aware of smooth rounded pillows of snow on the lee sides of terrain features and gully walls.


Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Weak layers of faceted, sugary snow exist in the snowpack providing an unstable base for future snow to land on. These layers can remain for some time and are called persistent weak layers An isolated danger exists for triggering an avalanche on of these buried weak layers, primarily on mid to upper elevation slopes steeper than 35 degrees that face the north half of the compass.

weather

High pressure develops today through Sunday. The flow shifts to zonal by Monday ahead of the next approaching system. The jury is still out on what this might mean for us, but we could see some more snow by mid-week.

Today

Sunny, with a high near 31. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 22. East wind around 10 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 38. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west northwest in the morning.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the evening.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 36. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 23.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of snow after 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Breezy.

Wednesday

A chance of snow, mainly after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Breezy.

Wednesday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Breezy.

Thanksgiving Day

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 18.
general announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.