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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, January 31, 2024
The overall avalanche danger is MODERATE on the Manti Skyline.
Human triggered avalanches breaking into weak snow near the ground are possible, although not all that likely.
The most likely places to find trouble today would be on VERY steep slopes that face northwest, north and northeast in the mid and upper elevation terrain.
The continued warm weather may produce some wet avalanche activity on sunny slopes and lower elevations but it should be easy to avoid. Just stay off steep slopes and out of gullies if the snow is wet and sloppy.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Tuesday ended up being probably the warmest day out of this stretch of mild weather with most stations getting into the mid 40s. Temperatures cooled down overnight into the mid 20s. The wind has remained generally light from the southwest. The sun and warm temperatures have taken a hit on the riding conditions on many aspects and elelvations. However, high elevation northerly facing slopes still hold very nice snow.
Mountain Weather: It's going to be another warm one today with high temperatures again into the upper 30s and perhaps low 40s. The wind will remain light from the south. Skies cloud up Thursday as the next storm moves in. Numerous weather models advertise about an inch of water with this storm which translates to a foot of snow or so. I think this is a bit optimistic given the direct southerly flow (a little southeast even) to start the storm. This direction is not usually favorable for copious amounts of snow. The flow does shift more southwest then ultimately northwest and we should see decent snowfall during that period. The other thing I note is that this storm looks fairly warm to start which means high density snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Things have quieted down with our buried Persistent Weak Layer of facets for the time being. There have been no recent avalanches reported. I haven't heard any reports of the snowpack collapsing over the last few days. The extremely warm weather should help settle and stabilize the snowpack. The bummer is that the sugary facets remain pretty loose at the base of the snowpack in many locations. This makes me uneasy. There are booby traps out there. While you can probably get away with hitting some steep lines today, the sugary weak snow at the base is enough to make me hold my cards tight for now.
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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