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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Thursday, April 4, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering wet snow avalanches on almost all slopes. While shallow, these wet loose and wet slab avalanches can entrain snow as they move downhill, resulting in deep debris piles, especially in the continuously steep terrain of the Provo area mountains.
The avalanche danger is MODERATE for triggering a lingering wind drift on steep, upper elevation northerly facing slopes slopes.
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Weather and Snow
Yesterday’s storm totals in the Provo area mountains came in at about 4" at the mid elevations, with about 1/2" of rain down low. The rain/snow line got as high as 8,200' at times (thanks Trevor). It was typical spring conditions, and while there may have been “dry” snow up high, it would have only lasted until late morning, when massive greenhousing (thinning clouds resulted in the snow heating on all aspects) turned the snow into mashed potatoes on all but high northerly facing. Almost all slopes will be crusted this morning before they heat once again.
Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures remained warm overnight, and are in the low to mid 30s at the low and mid elevation stations in the Provo area mountains. The southwesterly winds are very light, almost all stations averaging 10 mph with gusts less than 15 mph.
It’s going to be a hot one today...highs today will be near 60 at Aspecn Grove, 50 at 8,000’ and 40 at 10,000’. It will be a mix of sunny to partly cloudy, with high thin clouds in the mix. The southwesterly winds are forecast to remain light, though the highest peaks could gust in the 20s at times.
Recent Avalanches
No new observations yesterday from the Provo area mountains. There is a great one from Tuesday, April 2nd, that came in though. Trevor, lower UFO Bowls.
To the north, where they did get a bit more snow.....early in the day, sensitive soft slabs were triggered on all aspects, with the largest on the wind drifted, upper elevation northerly facing slopes, big enough to bury a person.
Then, like flipping a switch, thinning clouds allowed the snow heat on all aspects, and shallow wet loose sluffs and wet slabs were easy to trigger, running far and fast on the slick crusts beneath. Only averaging 4 to 8” deep, they still created impressive debris piles against trees. Two larger naturals occurred in the Y Couloir and Coal Pit.
A new snow slide, shallow but wide, on Claytons, high northeast. TieDyeTwins photo.
Y Couloir, Greg Gagne photo
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With a combination of thin clouds and very warm temperatures, shallow wet loose sluffs and slabs of new snow will again be easy to trigger on steep slopes of all almost aspects and elevation. These will average 3 to 6” deep, and run further and faster than expected on the slick ice crusts beneath. Entraining snow as they move downhill, even a shallow slide can stack up deep debris in terrain traps or against trees.
Look for clues - as soon as the crusts soften and the snow becomes damp, wet or soggy where you are or you can trigger small wet sluffs, it’s a sign of unstable wet snow. It’s time to move to low angle slopes and avoid terrain traps such as gullies and drainages.
At the mid to lower elevation, also be alert if snow snow is punchy, and you can break deeply into it, especially in shallow or rocky spots, and again avoid steep slopes. Snow conditions can change quickly with aspect and elevation.
Greg Gagne: a 17 second video of 4 feet of debris from a 6 inch deep slide, Little Cottonwood Canyon. Check out the whole observation here.
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Wind Blown snow - If you are searching for drier snow on up the upper elevation, shady slopes, expect a few lingering wind drifts along the higher ridge lines that could still be triggered. Signs of wind drifts include cracking of the snow and looking for smooth, rounded drifts that may be denser than the snow around them. A long running slide triggered in dry snow will change into a wet snow slide as it moves down slope, making it harder to escape if you’re caught and having a much denser, harder debris pile.
Glide cracks will remain active through the spring, and the resulting debris piles are unsurvivable. Avoidance is key - minimize or completely avoid travel below the large cracks.
Cornices will be more sensitive today with a new load and heating. Again, minimize your travel time below overhanging cornices. When traveling on ridge lines, stay well back from the edges of the cornices.
Additional Information
If you don’t like crusts and mashed potatoes, no worries - more storms are on the way. The first small storm should produce several inches of snow Friday night/Saturday morning, with a colder, larger storm around next Wednesday. We all love looking at these U of U products.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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