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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Sunday, March 3, 2019
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are likely. Avalanches within the new snow are likely on steep slopes on all aspects. Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow will mostly be found on the leeward sides of upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features on slopes facing NW-N-SE. There also remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches involving a buried, persistent weak layer. You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, rocky, northerly facing slopes, or in areas with a shallower snowpack. Backcountry travelers today need to have excellent route finding and snow stability analysis skills.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We're offering a Motorized Backcountry 101 course through Backcountry Institute on March 22, 23 to be held in Monticello, and Dark Canyon in the La Sal Mountains. Click here for more information and to register.
Weather and Snow
Gold Basin is reporting 13" of fairly dense, new snow this morning with most of it falling between 3:00 p.m. and midnight. 10" has fallen at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Pre Laurel Peak conked out around 1:00 a.m. but WSW winds blew in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the 40's before backing off around 10:00 p.m. Regionally, winds are now averaging 10-15 mph along ridge tops with gusts to 20. We may see a few scattered showers today with 1"-2" possible. WSW winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30. High temps will be in the upper 20's. We should see another shot of snow tonight with 3"-5" possible.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snotel totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600') y
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the new snow will be our primary concern today and the danger will increase with elevation. Slides can take the form of loose snow sluffs, or cohesive soft slabs. Observe how well the new snow is bonding to the old snow surface, and whether or not it has formed a cohesive slab. You can determine this with a quick hand pit. Look for blocks of snow between skin tracks. Cracking in the snow surface is also a sign of instability. Avoid slopes steeper than about 30 degrees until you can determine how the new snow is behaving.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Look for fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation terrain that faces NW-N-SE. You can recognize them by their smooth, rounded, or "fat" appearance. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We've added a new load of snow with 1.3" of water weight to our snowpack. Though it's been getting harder to trigger an avalanche down to a buried persistent weak layer, this new load will be a test. Steep, rocky slopes facing N-NE-E, and areas with a shallower snowpack are the most suspect and this includes slopes that have already avalanched, or that have been previously wind scoured. Any avalanches triggered on a persistent weak layer would be large and dangerous.
Additional Information
Check out this clip of local Moab sledders playing it safe and making sure their beacons are on at the Geyser Pass Trailhead.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: [email protected].
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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