Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Thursday, February 2, 2023
A MODERATE danger exists for avalanches involving wind drifted snow on all aspects above treeline.
In non-wind-affected terrain, the avalanche danger is generally LOW.
Practice safe travel techniques. Ride slopes one at a time and be mindful of consequential terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: The road is open today. Equipment will still be operating, please use caution.
Grooming: All trails were groomed yesterday and are good to go with today's road opening.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 5" Season Total Snow 183" Base Depth at Gold Basin 75"
Winds on Pre Laurel Peak N 5-10 Temp 12 F

Weather
Another beautiful day is on tap with sunny skies, light northerly winds, and high temps in the low 20's. We'll see increasing clouds on Friday as a weak system brushes by to the north. Sunny skies return on Saturday. The next chance for snow will be on Monday though it doesn't look like a big producer. Weather looks unsettled next week.

General Conditions
Five inches of new snow on Monday, followed by sunshine and windy conditions on Tuesday, have shaped current conditions. The safest bet for good snow will be on sheltered northerly aspects. Open terrain above treeline has a sculpted, wind affected look which doesn't necessarily mean it isn't soft - it might be. It also might not. We plan to get up there today to check it out. Most southerly aspects are likely to be crusted over.
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow in the high country remain your primary avalanche concern. Dave was up on Tuesday having a look around and he noted active wind loading above treeline. Read his observation here and see the video below. Drifts formed on Tuesday or earlier are gaining strength, but some may still be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider today.
See the full list of La Sal observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Some small, dry, loose avalanches from Tuesday's storm were observed in steep northerly terrain. See the La Sal Avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
5" of new snow, combined with wind on Tuesday, continued to form slabs of drifted snow on all aspects in the high country. The snow surface has a pillowy, wind affected look to it indicative of the blowing and drifting that occurred. Slabs formed earlier in the week are gaining strength but some may still be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Avoidance of steep slopes that show signs of recent wind loading is the safest strategy. If you do venture into steep terrain, be mindful of consequences where even a shallow wind slab could sweep you into rocks or carry you over a cliff.
Older, harder drifts that formed over the weekend exist on northerly facing slopes. These hard slabs are dangerous because they can allow you to get further down a slope before they break well above you. Hard drifts often produce hollow, drum-like sounds when you walk out on them. Any steep slopes that have a smooth, rounded, fat appearance, or that sounds hollow underneath should be avoided.
The small avalanche in this photo is a pocket of wind drifted snow that slid above Tele Gold. Notice how fat, rounded, and pillowy most of the snow appears in this photo. These slopes are obviously wind loaded. Any steeps slopes that look like this should be avoided.
Avalanche Problem #2
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on the buried persistent weak layer that formed in November has become so low that we have removed that problem from our forecast. A remote possibility exits however in thinner snowpack areas, or in very steep, rocky, radical terrain.
Avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow can be just as serious, especially if you find yourself in bigger alpine terrain. Consider your terrain choices carefully, and be aware of of the consequences. Always practice safe travel techniques regardless of conditions:
  • Only expose one member of the party at a time to avalanche terrain. The rest of the party should be in a safe spot with eyes on the skier or rider in the avalanche path.
  • Have an escape route or "Plan B" in your head if an avalanche were to happen.
  • Never ski above others parties in avalanche terrain. Keep open lines of communication with other touring parties.
  • Consider the consequences of your terrain choices. What will happen if the slope slides? What is below you? What are you connected to?
  • Continue to evaluate the snowpack and gather as much information as possible. Use test slopes that are representative of the terrain you wish to ski.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.