Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, March 3, 2025
Monday morning, March 3, 2025
New snow and wind could increase the danger a little today. Be on the lookout for shallow fresh slabs of wind drifted snow on the leeward sides of ridge creasts and terrain features, primarily on upper elevation north through easterly aspects. The danger will rise commensurate with the amount of snow we receive. Suspect steep slopes that have more than about 6 inches of new snow.
Human triggered avalanches remain possible but not likely on a buried weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. The danger is greatest on steep, northerly aspects that held snow prior to the Feb 14 storm. In these areas, a dense, cohesive slab exists over top of weak, sugary snow underneath. This is an unstable snowpack structure. Minimize your risk by avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Up to 2 feet of new snow on Feb 14 more than doubled the snowpack on shady slopes. Sun exposed slopes were mostly dry prior to the storm. The underlying snowpack was very weak and was largely comprised of loose, sugary, faceted snow. The new snow that fell on top was dense and heavy. This equates to poor snowpack structure with strong snow on top of weak. For now, human triggered avalanches remain possible where this structure exists - primarily on steep, northerly aspects. With the coming warm and dry period, little change is expected. When new snow is added to this fragile structure, the danger will again increase.
Photo illustrates poor snowpack structure with stronger, recent snow on top of weak, old snow.
Conditions remain thin.
Use these links for current conditions.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.