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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Thursday, December 28, 2017

We have a solid CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on many slopes in the backcountry. Even steep low elevation terrain - smaller, steep gullies, creek beds and road banks at the lower elevations​ - is suspect. Remember that these 1-2' deep and up to 300' wide avalanches are unmanageable - they can be triggered remotely from a distance and from below. Best to choose low angle slopes not connected to steeper terrain above.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

Discount lift tickets for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Deer Valley, Snowbasin,and Beaver Mountain are now available, donated by the resorts to benefit the Utah Avalanche Center. Details and order information here. All proceeds go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education!​

Weather and Snow

Skies are clear with moumtain temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.. Westerly winds are 15-20mph, gusting to 35, and continue to be enough to transport and damage the Christmas powder. Upper elevations host snow depths of 1-2 with more snow south of Provo canyon than on the north side. Despite the Christmas snow, we still have a long way to go to catch up. Pray harder.

Recent Avalanches

There have been no avalanches reported since the early Christmas avalanche cycle. In talking with UDOT Provo Canyon avalanche pros, the Cascade area above the south fork of Provo canyon went through an extensive avalanche cycle.

Mark Staples and USA (Utah Snowmobile Association) president Cal Taylor's excellent investigation of 4 partial burials in the Monte Cristo area (east of Huntsville) on Tuesday can be found here. (See video synopsis below). In brief, the riders triggered the 1/2 mile wide avalanche from below in this very close call. Interestingly, another party of UAC observers investigating the avalanche remotely triggered another, similar avalanche on an adjacent slope.

Complete list of reported avalanches

Heat map of aspects/elevations of avalanches in Logan, Ogden, SLC, Provo, and Uinta mountains below from 23 Dec to yesterday.

Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Collapsing and cracking continue to rule the day in the backcountry...and along with avalanche activity, are the surest indicators of avalanche danger. Anywhere we have recently buried weak faceted snow from early season is potentially suspect and dangerous. Insult to injury is that one doesn't need to be on a steep slope to trigger an avalanche. It's called collapse failure, remote triggering, or triggering from a distance and it's a function of the slab/weak layer interface that allows the crack to propagate wildly along the flats and up along the steep slope above you. Note how the overlying slab collapses the weak layer in the video below.

See the video from yesterday's remotely triggered avalanche near Monte Cristo.

Hot Tip! - When natural activity is expected, when it's possible to trigger avalanches from below, or if people might trigger slides on top of you, you must understand runout angles. You can find a good article here. Also...Remember that 1/3 of bc tourers are caught while going uphill.

Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Gusty westerly winds will continue to create sensitive wind drifts in the more open exposed terrain. Once any snow gets moving, it could step down to one of the deeper weak layers, resulting in a much larger avalanche.

Additional Information

It'll be mostly sunny this morning with westerly winds in the 20-25 mph range. Temps will be in the mid to upper 30s while the highest peaks reach toward freezing by tomorrow. The only sure bet are the gusty westerlies over the next few days with mild weather and occasional clouds streaming through. Long term forecast looks bleak.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.