Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Evelyn Lees
Issued by Evelyn Lees for
Wednesday, December 20, 2017

It is a day of rising avalanche danger as the wind drifts (wind slabs) grow. The avalanche danger is MODERATE today - human triggered wind slab avalanches are possible on upper elevation slopes facing northwest through east, where the snow drifts are sitting on old snow. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, identify and avoid all wind drifts on steep slopes. The avalanche danger will increase and become more widespread when the snow arrives late this afternoon.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements

Don’t know what to buy your favorite skier for Christmas? Discount lift tickets for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Deer Valley, Snowbasin,and Beaver Mountain are now available, donated by the resorts to benefit the Utah Avalanche Center. Details and order information here. These make a great holiday gift and all proceeds go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education!

Weather and Snow

The southwesterly winds picked significantly a few hours before midnight – and at 8,200’ in the Provo area mountains are averaging 20 mph, gusting in the 30s and 40s. Winds are racing along the high ridgelines, and annemometers to the north are averaging in the 40s, gusting in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s at mid elevations.

The low to mid elevation slopes in the Provo area mountains below about 9500' are mostly bare, with only patchy snow. On shady, upper elevation slopes, total snow on the ground was around a foot deep when Drew went up to Primrose cirque at the beginning of the month. There looks to be a bit more snow on Cascade Ridge. See Mark's photo collage of the Provo mountains from Saturday.

Recent Avalanches

None.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The wind is changing the landscape and avalanche danger today, but only at the highest elevations of the Provo area mountains. Even before the storm and new snow arrives, the winds will be drifting old snow, and these drifts will be crossloaded onto a variety of aspects and elevations. Key points:

  • The most dangerous drifts will be those on upper elevation northwest through southeasterly facing slopes, where they are landing on weak, faceted snow.
  • The drifts are both along the ridges and mid slope, well off the ridgelines.
  • You will be able to trigger these drifts from a distance, or worse, from below.
  • Avoid travel on and below steep wind drifted slopes - cracking, collapsing or harder, dense snow are signs of a wind drift.
  • Danger will increase late today and overnight as the storm arrives and we receive snow.
  • Due to lack of snow, being caught and carried by even a small avalanche could be very dangerous, as you will be dragged through shallowly buried rocks or downed trees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

After 3 weeks of high pressure, very weak faceted snow exists across the northern Utah mountains, wherever there was snow on the ground before this storm. The snowpack on the shady, upper elevation slopes in the Provo area mountains consists of weak crusts and sugary faceted snow. Once we get some weight on these weak layers, dangerous avalanches could be triggered. We are watching this storm carefully to see if we over load these layers this evening or tonight. Right now, the storm is looking too small.

Additional Information

Another case of incredible shrinking snow numbers – the hope now is for 2 to 5” of low-density snow by tomorrow morning. For today, moderate to strong, southwesterly winds until the afternoon frontal passage, with high temperatures at 9,500’ in the mid to upper 30s. Frontal passage is forecast for 4 to 6 pm, accompanied by a burst of heavy snow. Wind will shift to the northwest, and decrease after a few hours, and temperatures drop, into the single digits by morning. A few lingering snow showers are possible Thursday morning, with highs only in the teens and 20s, under a brisk, northeasterly flow.

General Announcements

FOR MORE GENERAL INFORMATION CLICK HERE

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.