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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for
Sunday, December 24, 2017

Today there is a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on all upper elevation terrain for wind slab and persistent slab avalanches. These dangerous avalanche condition require careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision-making skills. Natural avalanches are possible and human triggered avalanches likely. Avoid being on, adjacent or under steep slopes as avalanches can be triggered from a distance.

At mid elevations the danger will be MODERATE. Even in wind sheltered terrain, storm slab avalanches may be possible because the new snow is landing on a very weak snow pack. The best and safest riding will be found on low angle terrain (less than 30 degrees) with nothing steep above or adjacent to you.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Avalanche Watch

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT FROM 0600 MST THIS MORNING TO 0600 MST Monday.

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...OGDEN AREA MOUNTAINS...BEAR RIVER RANGE...WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE RISING AND COULD REACH HIGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SNOWFALL TONIGHT WILL POTENTIALLY MAKE VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS.

* IMPACTS…ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND COULD CREATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES WILL BECOME LIKELY. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.

THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.

Special Announcements

Don’t know what to buy your favorite skier for Christmas? Discount lift tickets for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Deer Valley, Snowbasin,and Beaver Mountain are now available, donated by the resorts to benefit the Utah Avalanche Center. Details and order information here. All proceeds from these great holiday gifts go towards paying for avalanche forecasting and education!

Weather and Snow

Old man winter finally showed its face yesterday with a ferocious storm laying down 15" to 17" inches of snow (1.36" to 1.61" H20) in the Ogden area mountains. The north-west winds raged for much of the day, at almost all elevations.

This morning the storm has exited to our east and we have clear skies and very cold temperatures. Upper and mid elevation temperatures are in the single digits and teens, and winds have shifted to the west and southwest at most stations and continue to be annoying with speeds 15-20 mph range. Riding and turning conditions will be five stars out of five... at least for this year.

Recent Avalanches

Natural and human triggered avalanches were reported by many backcountry riders and snow safety teams yesterday as the storm snow piled up. Cracking and collapsing (whoophing noises) were also reported on a wide variety of aspects and elevations. Here is a link to all the Ogden area observations from yesterday: All Observations.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Yesterday's strong northerly winds created wind slabs on all upper elevation terrain, including well off the ridgelines and areas where the wind cross loaded snow into gullies. Today, winds continue to be in the 15-20 mph range, gusting into the 30's at upper elevations. The winds will mainly be from the west to southwest, are expected to increase as another storm approaches northern Utah. There is abundant powder snow available for transport, so new sensitive wind drifts will build and become easy to trigger today.

Wind can change the landscape and increase the avalanche danger faster than any other weather factor, so be alert to the changing conditions and reevaluate often. Natural avalanches are possible today, so be aware of what’s above you even when you are in wind-sheltered terrain. Plumes off the peaks, cracking of denser snow or your tracks filling in are key signs of wind drifting.

Out of wind effected terrain it is possible to trigger a storm slab failing on last Wednesday's storm. Many observers were seeing full propagation in their snowpit tests on this layer of low density stellars. It's complicated - avoid all avalanche terrain today and stick to low angle slopes that aren't steeper than 30 degrees to enjoy the new snow.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Any new snow avalanche in the upper elevation northwest through east facing terrain may step down to the weak sugary facets. These slides will likely be 1-2' deep and a few hundred feet wide and may be un-survivable. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance today, so avoid being on, adjacent, or under any terrain steeper than 30 degrees. This storm was a good test to see how our weak sugary snow pack reacted under stress. Your weight will be additional stress today if entering the upper elevation steep northerly terrain, where I would bet you'll find an avalanche.

Photo: Brian Pollick, Powdermountain Snow Safety - triggered this avalanche from a distance yesterday failing on weak sugary snow. This is a good example of the terrain we want to avoid today.

Additional Information

Increasing clouds today as a storm approaches northern Utah. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 20's Fahrenheit by this afternoon. The west to southwest winds are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range gusting into the 30's along the upper elevation ridgelines, increasing this afternoon. A cold front will arrive overnight and into Monday bringing a white Christmas and hopefully 6" to 12" inches of new snow.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.