Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples for
Wednesday, November 11, 2015

We are not yet posting a danger rating for the season and we have very limited snowpack data; however, potentially dangerous avalanche conditions exist with over 2 feet of snow containing 3 inches of water falling in the last 12 hours. This is a massive load for an early season snowpack. Until proven wrong, I would expect to see avalanches today.

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Special Avalanche Bulletin

In the last 12 hours the La Sal mountains have gotten 27 inches of snow containing 3 inches of water at SNOTEL site at the Geyser Pass Trailhead. This is a massive load for an early season snowpack. We have no data on the snowpack other than what we can see from remote weather stations and SNOTEL sites. Today's snow at the Geyser Pass Trailhead fell on 6-10 inches of old snow which I would assume is weak and faceted. In other areas four days ago, Eric reported up 24 inches of snow on the ground. This amount of snow could be weak and faceted as well. Additionally this amount of snow is enough to cover the terrain and allow avalanches to propagate over sizable distances. For these reasons, I would expect avalanches and possibly dangerous conditions until proven wrong.

Special Announcements

The Utah Avalanche Center Moab has not yet begun issuing regular advisories for the season but winter doesn't seem to know that! Strong winds have moved snow around forming drifts and wind slabs along the lee sides of upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features. USFS Recreation, Trails, and Wilderness Program Manager Brian Murdock was in the mountains Friday and he observed several small, natural wind slab releases in the upper cirques of Gold Basin, and backcountry travelers are advised to be on the lookout for wind slabs and recent deposits of wind drifted snow in upper elevations.

If you are out and about, it is also a good time to start taking stock of snow that is on the ground. Shallow, early season snowpacks are very susceptible to the process of temperature gradient metamorphism and the development of depth hoar. Depth hoar provides an unstable base for future snow to pile up on, and can exist as a persistent weak layer for much of the season.

​The road beyond the Geyser Pass Trailhead is not yet officially closed, but numerous vehicles have gotten stuck trying to drive beyond. It is recommended that all vehicles stop and park at the trailhead.

And finally, though all the new snow is exciting, it is very shallow, and most obstacles are barely covered. Don't let early season enthusiasm ruin the rest of the season through an injury.

The Moab office will be up and running by mid-November. In the mean time, use the weather links below to stay abreast of current conditions, and if you are out and about, go to our observation page and let us know what you are seeing!

Weather and Snow

Use the links below for hourly updated mountain weather information including new snow totals, wind speed and direction, temperature and humidity.

La Sal Weather

Wind speeds and temperature at 11,700' on Pre-Laurel Peak.

New snow totals and temperature at Geyser Pass Trailhead.

Abajo Mountain Weather

Winds and temperature on Abajo Peak.

Snow total at Buckboard Flat.

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