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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Expect a rising avalanche danger overnight and on Thanksgiving Day. Heightened avalanche conditions already exist in the backcountry and there's a MODERATE or (level 2) danger at upper elevations. You could trigger wind slab avalanches on steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Shallow snow conditions mean a ride in any avalanche could be very dangerous, with rocks and down trees adding significantly to the risk. Avoid steep drifted terrain, watch for trees and terrain traps below, and continue to use wise travel protocols.

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High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

Join us for a free avalanche awareness talk with the USU Outdoor Recreation Program at 7:00 on December 1..... USU ORP classes

Don't miss the 12th annual Utah Avalanche Center in Logan's "Pray for Snow" party and fundraiser, the evening of December 3, again at the Italian Place in Downtown Logan.. For info and tickets go ............HERE

Weather and Snow

Snow is on the way and it'll be breezy and snowy in the mountains today. Expect heightened avalanche conditions on drifted upper elevation slopes and increasing danger with continued east wind and intensifying snowfall this afternoon and tonight. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 30 degrees this morning and 18" of total snow containing 80% of average water for the date. The CSI Logan Peak weather station at 9700' reports 25 degrees and sustained and rather strong southeast winds, with average wind speeds in the upper twenties.

Cold, clear, and dry nights over the weekend and accelerated temperature gradient induced sublimation through a shallow snowpack caused last week's heavy snow to become very sugary and weak or faceted. Video Observation, Beginner Bowl, Tony Grove, 11-23-2015

This avalanche on a steep north facing slope above the Tony Grove Campground and near Beginner Bowl was probably remotely triggered by a skier Friday. (11-20-2015)


Words of warning: Very shallow, early season conditions exist, and you are still likely to hit rocks or woody debris in most areas. The Tony Grove Road is not maintained in the winter for wheeled vehicles, and road conditions are icy, snowy, drifted-in and treacherous, so come prepared. The upper section of the road and the loop at the lake were impassible over the weekend. The Tony Grove Area is a shared use area and very popular in the early season, so please watch your speed, use patience, and be respectful of other users. For easier access, Beaver Mt. allows uphill travel and appreciates early season users packing down the weak snow. Remember while the lifts are closed, the area is considered backcountry .


It's time to dust off and check the condition of your avalanche rescue equipment. Review and practice Companion Avalanche Rescue with our video..........HERE****


Recent Avalanches

Natural and remote triggered storm and/or persistent slab activity occurred in the Tony Grove Area Friday, 11-22-15 after heavy snowfall containing around 2.5" of water.

I noticed at least two fairly broad avalanches on the steep slopes west of Tony Grove Lake. It looked like debris crossed the lakeside trail, hitting the lake in a couple places..

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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

You could trigger fresh and forming wind slab avalanches in drifted upper elevation terrain. Avalanches will likely release on weak faceted snow in the basal layers of the snowpack and will include all the snow, sliding to the ground. Due to the shallow snow conditions, a ride in even a small avalanche could be traumatic or potentially deadly.

Expect increasing avalanche danger this evening and on Thanksgiving Day, with strengthening east winds and significant accumulations possible at upper elevations tonight

Additional Information

From NWS in SLC:
Today: Snow likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. East wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tonight: Snow. Low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -4. Breezy, with an east wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thanksgiving Day: Snow. High near 14. Wind chill values as low as -9. Breezy, with an east wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

General Announcements

Please submit snow and avalanche observations from your ventures in the backcountry HERE. You can call us at 801-524-5304 or email HERE, or include #utavy in your Instagram or Tweet us @UAClogan. To report avalanche activity in the Logan Area or to contact the local avalanche forecaster call me, Toby, at 435-757-7578.

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.