US Forest Service Manti-La
Sal National Forest
Snow, Weather and Avalanche Advisory
Introduction:
Good Morning, this is
Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your with your
avalanche and mountain weather advisory for the Wasatch Plateau/Manti Skyline
Region, including, but not limited to Ephraim, Huntington and Fairview
Canyons. This advisory is brought
to you through a partnership of Utah State Parks and the USFS. Today is Saturday, February 26th, 2005
at 7:30 am.
Current Conditions:
Warm
temperatures, partly cloudy skies and great riding conditions are expected on
the Skyline this weekend! Last
weekend’s storm left six inches of powder. The sun has affected the new snow, creating a breakable
sun-crust on West through South aspects.
On North through East aspects, you will find some nice consolidated powder
conditions. There were some cornice
failures and at least one new snowmobile triggered avalanche on the Skyline since
last weekend, read on to the avalanche conditions for more information. The roads and parking lots are in great
shape!
Mammoth/Cottonwood SNOTEL:
54”
of snow on the ground and 11 degrees at 5:00 a.m. High temperature yesterday reached 57 degrees, with a couple
of hours during the mid-day that hovered in the high 40’s.
Miller Flat Trailhead:
There
is 54” of snow on the ground.
Seeley Creek SNOTEL:
There is 47” of snow on the ground. The high temperature yesterday reached 33 degrees at this
SNOTEL stake.
Mountain Weather:
A high-pressure system is over the region currently, the next
chance for some snow will be Tuesday.
Saturday: Partly
cloudy. High temperature at 8,000’
will be near 40 degrees.
Saturday night: Partly
cloudy. Low temperature at 8,000’ will
be 5-10 above.
Sunday: Partly
cloudy. High temperature at 8,000’
will be near 40 degrees.
Avalanche Conditions:
Yesterday’s
observations show that the snow pack is on its way towards healing itself. Warm temperatures and lack of any new
snow in the past week has allowed the snow to start to settle out and not have
any new stress applied to it, besides snowmobiles and skiers. With the warm temperatures, there has
been some point releases on south through west aspects; numerous pin-wheels and
cinnamon rolls were observed in Huntington Canyon and off of some snowboarders
tracks in Fairview canyon. These
pin-wheels or cinnamon rolls are signs of instability, showing that the surface
snow is losing its cohesion. If
you start seeing these, it is a good time to leave that aspect and recreate
somewhere else. I am not too
concerned with wet slab releases yet on these aspects, I’m concerned that wet
and heavy snow could start to move and be enough to knock someone off their
feet and into a tree or off a cliff.
On the other side of the compass, on North through East aspects, the
snow is healing, although there is a weakness in the snow pack about 2 feet
down which is quite wide-spread. My
concern for today on these aspects are trigger points that can transfer the
energy of a skier or snowmobiler into this weak layer. Be weary of over-hanging cornices,
shallow buried rocks and steep convex rollovers on these aspects. There hasn’t been any “large”
avalanches in the past week, what I am concerned about today a possibility of
if an avalanche occurs, what the consequences might be; will it push you into a
tree?
The Bottom Line is an avalanche danger of MODERATE on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees where
the trigger points mentioned above are present on North through East aspects. For the rest of the Skyline, I am going
to rate the avalanche danger at LOW. Remember to expose
only one person to the slope at a time, start in safe zones and practice with
your avalanche transceivers!