US Forest Service Manti-La Sal National Forest

 Introduction:  Good morning, this is Max Forgensi with the USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather advisory.  Today is Thursday, January 4th, 2007 at 9:00 a.m. This advisory will expire in 24 hours.  We will update this forecast on Saturday morning, January 6th. 

 

CHECK OUT OUR NEW GROOMING EQUIPMENT HERE.

 

To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE.  To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE.  To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.

Please give us your observations from the field HERE.  The more observations we get, the better this forecast can be. 

 

OUR LEVEL 1 AIARE COURSE SCHEDULED FOR JANUARY 5TH-7TH IS CANCELLED DUE TO LACK OF SNOW AND LACK OF STUDENTS.  WE WILL RESCHEDULE THIS COURSE IN THE FUTURE 

  

General Conditions:

       Finally, some snow is in the forecast.  The Pre-Laurel weather station is back up and running!  The station is showing winds have predominantly been out of the west for the past 24 hours, averaging between 10-20 mph for that duration.  The snow conditions are variable and the past week of high pressure has started to recrystallize some of the surface snow on the ground.  Recycled powder will be found on North-East aspects while on South-West aspect be prepared for crusts and in some places, no snow at all.  The best bet is to find some 30 degree slopes below tree-line on North aspects…beware of ground hazards though. 

       To get a winter workout, go up and use the groomed Nordic and Skate Ski trails!  On Friday, 1/5, the LUNA groomers will lay a new carpet of corduroy. 

 

Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’) –

Today: Increasing clouds, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 10 and 20 mph.
Tonight: Periods of snow, mainly after 11pm. Low around 13. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northwest. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Friday: Periods of snow. High near 14. Blustery, with a north northwest wind between 10 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 2. Blustery, with a north northeast wind between 10 and 20 mph.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Weather Station/ Location

Snow Depth (HS):  in./cm

Storm Total

(HN):  in./cm

7:00 a.m. Temp (F)

Current Observations:  Wind, 48 hour snow

Geyser Pass Trailhead (9,600’): (snotel link)

15.0”

0

31.3

Temperatures are decreasing, Relative humidity is increasing. 

Geyser Pass

24”

0

N/a 

~

Gold Basin and South Mountain

24”

0

n/a

Thin, below normal coverage

Pre-Laurel Peak Station (11,705’)

N/a 

N/a 

21.5

West winds at 20 mph gusts to 40 mph

 

Avalanche Conditions: (Link to the International Avalanche Danger Scale here) –

 

  We are currently calling the Avalanche danger MODERATE, meaning that human triggered avalanches are possible. There are still some stiff wind slabs at and above treeline.  Currently, any human triggered avalanches will probably be small and could only be triggered in a few locations.  What we are waiting for is what this storm on the horizon will bring us.  If enough snow falls and transporting surface winds are present, be sure that the avalanche danger will rise in accordance to these direct action avalanche makers.