I looked at several slopes on Pioneer Ridge and between Snake Creek and Crest lifts and examined a large avalanche from control work several days ago.

The very fragile layer of faceted snow, which produced all the avalanches this past weekend, is still present and still very weak.  Once loaded with more weight this coming weekend, it will reactivate and continue to produce avalanches, probably not as widespread or as sensitive, but it will remain dangerous.  I was still getting collapses and it propagated easily on about 15 Extended Column Tests in a wide variety of slopes above 9,500’ facing north.  I avoided steep, north facing slopes because it still remains dangerous.  (ECTP – 12 and very consistent from about 15 tests.) 

This is a particularly nasty layer because it sits on a melt-freeze crust, which concentrates the mechanical energy and also provides a great bed surface.  The faceted layer is fairly thin so it further concentrates any strain in the snowpack from the weight of a person on top, which makes the snow quite sensitive.

The loading from the expected storm this weekend will likely not be nearly as widespread or sensitive as last weekend because it already has two storms worth of snow on top of it.  So in theory, it should increase the load on the weak layer by a third instead of doubling the weight as in last weekend's storm.

I'm still guessing we will call it a Level 3 (Considerable) danger this weekend and probably remain at that level in the mean time.  It's not called a persistent weak layer for nothing.