Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath for
Friday, April 5, 2024
Human triggered avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. Here are a couple things to keep an eye out for:
  • Shallow, fresh deposits of wind drifted snow on leeward facing slopes.
  • Loose, wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes as the day heats up.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Weather
Uncle gusty has arrived and a high wind warning is in effect. Today, look for increasing clouds, warm temperatures, and nuking southerly winds averaging 40-50 mph with gusts as high as 70 mph. By early afternoon, moisture will spill into the region ahead of the cold front which will cause temperatures to crater to near 10°F tonight. Chances for snow look meager and I think we'll be lucky to see a couple of inches. A chance for snow lingers into Saturday with clearing skies later in the day and continued blustery conditions. Sunday looks sunny and mostly calm.
General Conditions:
Today we should see a drastic deterioration of conditions and heading up to the mountains, or even going outside may be a questionable choice today. A poor overnight freeze will make for some punchy conditions on sun exposed slopes and areas of soft powder snow are dwindling. The other unfortunate aspect of these very windy conditions in spring is airborne dust, and we may end up with a layer that could interfere with future corn conditions. Fingers crossed that this won't be too bad. I learned last week that it pays to be pessimistic - maybe we'll get a nice surprise with no dust, and a few inches of snow to freshen up conditions for Sunday.
Even though there's very little snow available snow for transport out there, with wind speeds above 40 mph we still might see some snow blowing around. Look for shallow, fresh drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features on upper elevation, northerly aspects. Strong winds and increasing clouds should keep loose, wet avalanche activity at bay but with a marginal overnight refreeze, and warm temperatures today, we can't rule it out. Be alert to signs of instability such as rollerballs or pinwheels on sun exposed slopes, and stay off of, and out from under steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.