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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, February 22, 2025
A CONSIDERABLE danger rating exists on upper elevation north through east facing slopes.
Human triggered avalanches are likely that break deep into loose sugary faceted snow.
This is a dangerous situation because not all slopes will release if you get on them, giving you a false sense of security.
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
Today is a likely day for an avalanche accident because:
  • It's a sunny Saturday which makes us feel good.
  • We've had a bunch of fresh snow this week and riding conditions are great, which they haven't been for most of the season.
  • You may not see signs of avalanche danger like recent avalanches or cracking in the snow surface.
These factors can cloud our judgment causing us to take more risk. It's a classic case of "Powder Fever".
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Clouds shrouded the peaks for most of the day on Friday keeping the new snow quality high. Some slopes did get hit by the sun and will be crusted this morning. Temperatures got up to around 30˚F in the high country and dropped back into the upper teens overnight. Wind was calm to light in speed from the northwest and is still very light this morning. Riding conditions are quite good but there are still many hollow areas where you'll punch through and find hidden treasures like rocks, stumps and logs.
Mountain Weather: It'll be a glorious day out there today with sun and mild temperatures. Highs will get into the mid 30s with some areas up around 40˚F. Wind from the northwest will remain fairly light for most of the day. Sunday will be slightly warmer but with some scattered clouds. Monday is warmer yet.
Recent Avalanches
Electric Lake bowl released naturally during the last storm on Thursday. This is a northeast facing bowl with a starting zone at around 9600'. It was reported to have released "wall to wall". My guess is that it broke into deeper buried faceted snow.
This is key information because if a slide like this released naturally, there are many more that just need a trigger like a skier or snowmobiler.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
By far, the biggest threat out there today is the chance of triggering an avalanche that breaks deep into faceted weak snow. The loose faceted snow deeper in the snowpack is everywhere. The most likely places to trigger an avalanche are steep slopes on the north half of the compass ESPECIALLY UPPER ELEVATION NORTH THROUGH EAST FACING SLOPES.
Not all slopes will release. You may get lucky and hit a bunch of them and they won't crack out making you think that everything is solid. Things are not solid. It's like having scattered land mines buried in the snow. Steep terrain is a roll of the dice. Avoid it to stay safe today.
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Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The direct sun will probably shock the new snow and make it wet and sloppy. Often we see some natural avalanche activity during these warm ups directly after a storm. For the most part, this wet activity doesn't cause much harm to people. Just keep it in mind though, and think about whether you are on or below a steep slope where the snow is wet and punchy.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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