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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, March 11, 2025
The avalanche danger is rated MODERATE today on the Manti Skyline.
As the snowpack settles and stabilizes, it is becoming less likely but still possible to trigger an avalanche that breaks deep into older sugary faceted snow. (low probability, high consequence)
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The warm temperatures have taken a toll on the riding conditions but you can still find creamy dense powder on high northerly facing slopes. Temperatures on Monday were well into the 40s and hovered around 30˚F overnight. The wind has been light from the southwest. It just bumped in speed along the highest peaks but overall remains light. We have clouds moving through.
Mountain Weather: Today we'll see high clouds but I'm guessing the sun might filter through a bit. Temperatues will get up to around 40˚F and the wind will be light from the southwest increasing slightly later on. Numerous storm systems are lined up through March 25th. The next one moves in later on Thursday and should produce a good shot of snow by Friday. Another impulse moves through on Saturday then another one early next week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As time goes on and the snowpack gets deeper, it will become more stable. The older deeper layers of weak snow will continue to slowly gain strength. The snow above those weak layers will create a stronger "bridge" making it harder to break into the older weak layers.
The trick is knowing when those old weak layers are completely stable. This is very difficult to determine with faceted snow. It will often fail long after you think things are stable. You might get onto 19 slopes without triggering anything then the 20th decides to release. Or your buddy hits a slope and it stays in place but you hit a slightly different line and it releases.
I continue to hold my cards tight by avoiding the steepest terrain still.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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