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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, February 8, 2025
The overall danger on the Manti Skyline is CONSIDERABLE.
Unfortunately, 6 to 10 inches of new snow needs to be treated as guilty until proven innocent.
The danger is most pronounced in the Central Skyline from around Lowry Top down through Ephraim Canyon which received the most new snow, about 10 inches.
The danger is less pronounced in the Fairview zone as well as the 12 Mile Canyon zone which received about 6 inches of new snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: A quick hitting storm Friday evening produced a bit more snow than anticipated. The snow stacked up to about 6 inches (.4" H2O) in most locations across the Skyline. However, the central zone (Lowry Top down through Ephraim Canyon) picked up a solid 10 inches (.7" H2O). Temperatures dropped into the teens overnight. Strong wind from the southwest shifted northwest during the frontal passage and dramatically slowed in speed. It has been generally light during the night.
Mountain Weather: We'll have some clearing for the first part of the day and then the chance for some clouds building back in later on. Temperatures will rebound into the mid 20s. Wind will remain generally light from a westerly direction, maybe increasing in speed slightly this afternoon. It looks like Sunday and Monday will be sunny with high temperatures in the mid 20s.
Recent Avalanches
There has been no confirmed avalanche activity on the Skyline overnight but I wouldn't be surprised to see evidence of dry loose snow sluffing or some scattered soft slab avalanches that released naturally during the storm. The snow stacked up very fast and this often leads to an unstable situation during the high rates of snowfall.
Also, there was a very close call late Friday in the Logan mountains where a snowmobile rider was caught and buried with only a hand and part of his airbag sticking out. Details are vague and we'll have more information today.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
It is difficult to say how stable the new snow is. There was very little wind during the event which is a good sign. However, the snow stacked up very rapidly which often produces unstable conditions. But, the snowfall ended around midnight meaning the new snow has had around 8 hours to settle, which is a good thing.
Here's what you want to do today.
  • Look for any avalanche activity that released during the storm. This includes both loose dry sluffing as well as shallow soft slab avalanches.
  • Watch for cracking around your skis, snowboards or snowmachines. Cracking is a sign of unstable snow.
  • Use small steep test slopes with no serious consequences to cut across and see if you can initiate any cracking.
If you don't see any of this, the new snow is probably stable. That leads you to the next problem described below.
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Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is lots of loose sugary snow present in different layers throughout our snowpack. Many of the areas with loose faceted snow have been capped off by recently formed wind drifts and wind slabs. Most of these seem stubborn and don't want to crack out. Some may crack out if provoked by a person. Here's the tricky thing. All the evidence will be hidden by a beautiful layer of fresh powder. You won't be able to identify where these old drifts are just by looking. All you'll see is delightful fresh powder. This makes assessing these old weak layers tricky. Getting onto steep slopes will be a little bit of a crap shoot.
If you don't like the risk of not knowing which slopes will stay put and which ones will release, the most simple thing is to avoid slopes steeper than 30˚.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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