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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, March 7, 2025
The avalanche danger has increased to CONSIDERABLE due to new snow and wind.
The new snow proved to be somewhat sensitive on Thursday with a few natural avalanches spotted.
Human triggered avalanches are likely within the new snow and the danger is more pronounced on the north end of the Skyline (Fairview/Electric Lake) which received the most new snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
I am pleased to announce that we have a new version of our Utah Avalanche Center app available. This is a huge improvement over our older version which I disliked and did not recommend to anyone. This version has an inclinometer for measuring slope angles. We plan to add new features on the next version this summer but this is a great start and again, a huge upgrade from our previous version.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The storm is shaking out about as expected in the Ephraim Canyon/12 Mile Canyon zones with around 10 inches of new snow. The storm exceeded my expectations on the north end of the Skyline around Fairview and Miller Flat where 18" of new snow has accumulated. With the addition of Monday's storm we are up to around 2 feet of new snow this week across the Skyline. Southwest wind picked up and blew in the moderate to strong range Tuesday afternoon. There was definitely snow getting transported and forming drifts. Temperatures were in the mid 20s on Thursday and have cooled into the upper teens. Riding conditions are quite good.
Mountain Weather: We'll see continued periods of light snowfall today, mainly this morning, with a few inches of accumulation possible. Wind will slow and shift direction coming more from the northwest and north later on. Temperatures will get into the mid 20s. Skies look like they'll clear out on Saturday and we'll see temperatures in the mid to upper 20s then much warmer temperatures on Sunday. The next chance for snow is a storm moving in about Thursday of next week.
Recent Avalanches
There was some natural avalanche activity on Thursday during the storm. A density inversion (probably lower density snow from Monday with higher density new snow on top) that appeared to be the weakness. MORE DETAILS HERE
PHOTO: Brett Kobernik, Fairview Canyon
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The new snow has proven to be somewhat sensitive. Here are the red flags I saw on Thursday:
  • Natural avalanches.
  • Cracking within the new snow.
  • Heavy snowfall.
  • Wind drifting snow.
  • Poor snowpack structure. The new snow had a slight density inversion which could be felt on skis. This is most likely where the avalanches were failing.
Instablilites within the new snow often settle out fairly quickly but I suspect things will still be touchy today. There is enough new snow, especially in the Fairview zone, to make these new snow avalanches dangerous.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Older layers of weak sugary faceted snow remain deeper in our snowpack. These remain a concern as we add more weight to the snowpack. My best guess is that this storm didn't add enough weight to produce a widespread avalanche cycle that breaks into older weak snow. I'm actually not expecting any natural avalanches to break into the old weak layers. My guess is that if a deeper avalanche releases, it will be human triggered most likely by a snowmobiler on a steep slope that faces north, northeast or east.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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