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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, March 12, 2025
The avalanche danger is rated MODERATE today on the Manti Skyline.
As the snowpack settles and stabilizes, it is becoming less likely but still possible to trigger an avalanche that breaks deep into older sugary faceted snow. (low probability, high consequence)
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Spring like conditions exist. Most snow covered areas turn to wet snow during the day, some places getting pretty sloppy. Things freeze up at night with stiff crusts in the morning. There is a small amount of cold dense snow on upper elevation north facing slopes. Temperatures got up to around 40˚F on Tuesday and dropped into the mid 20s overnight. The wind has been light from the southwest.
Mountain Weather: We'll see scattered clouds and temperatures again up to around 40˚F. Wind will be light from the southwest. More clouds move in Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures. A decent looking storm moves in Thursday night which could produce 6 to 10 inches of new snow by Friday. Another impulse moves through Saturday that looks like it might bring another 4 to 6 inches. It looks like it could be fairly windy especially Saturday's impulse.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
No big change in conditions. The snowpack has settled about 6" since the weekend. This consolidation will continue to stabilize the snowpack.
The older deeper layers of weak snow continue to slowly gain strength. The snow above those weak layers is becoming a stronger "bridge" making it harder to break into the older weak layers.
The trick is knowing when those old weak layers are completely stable. This is very difficult to determine with faceted snow. It will often fail long after you think things are stable. You might get onto 19 slopes without triggering anything then the 20th decides to release. Or your buddy hits a slope and it stays in place but you hit a slightly different line and it releases.
I continue to hold my cards tight by avoiding the steepest terrain still.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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