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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Monday morning, January 20, 2025
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on W-N-E-SE aspects near and above treeline, where slabs of wind-drifted snow rest atop a buried persistent weak layer. The most suspect terrain is on steep W-N-E facing slopes near treeline, where human-triggered avalanches 1-2 feet deep remain possible.
Above treeline, there is a low-probability but high-consequence risk for full-depth avalanches failing on weak facets near the ground in isolated areas. This risk is decreasing, but to mitigate it, avoid thin slopes, steep convexities, and rocky, extreme terrain on northerly aspects.
Most other terrain has a LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Surface is mainly snowpacked and icy. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Gold Basin through Geyser Pass was groomed Saturday.
The beacon park is up and running. High pressure is a great time to work on your beacon skills.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: trace amount 72 Hour Snow: 1" Season Total Snow: 61" Depth at Gold Basin: 30"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 15-20 Temp: -3° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 85%
Weather
This morning, under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have plummeted again, ranging from -3°F at trailheads to -8°F on ridgelines. Around 6 a.m., west-northwesterly winds averaged 15–20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Yesterday, a trace amount of snow may have swirled in the air, but it wasn’t enough to measure.
Today, skies will begin to clear by early afternoon, but temperatures will remain cold, with highs just above 0°F. Northwesterly winds will average 15–20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph.
Throughout the week, skies will remain clear, and temperatures will gradually rise, creating ideal conditions for beautiful travel. The next chance for snow arrives this weekend.
General Conditions
The trace amount of snow this weekend marked a welcome pattern shift, even if it didn’t significantly change riding conditions—it was just nice to see snowflakes flying again. While soft snow still exists, increasing winds and days without measurable snowfall are making it harder to find. Your best chances are on sheltered, northerly aspects below treeline.
Although the avalanche risk is decreasing, a weak, faceted layer about a foot below the surface remains a concern. You can easily identify this layer with a shovel. If you find a slab above it, it’s best to avoid steep slopes (see more below).
Along ridgelines, elevated winds from the 15th have stripped and scoured the surface, making travel more challenging than it was a few days ago. Additionally, many slopes still have thin snow cover, with rocks, stumps, and logs lurking just beneath the surface. Don’t end your season before it even begins!
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The primary avalanche concern is a weak layer of faceted snow from the December dry spell, buried on 12/25, about a foot below the surface on west, north, east, and southeast aspects. While this weak layer is widespread, the overlying slab required to create an avalanche is not.
Near treeline, westerly, northerly, and easterly aspects are the most suspect, where cohesive slabs 1–2 feet deep are more consistent. Terrain transitions are critical: you may move from soft, weak snow or scoured surfaces to standing atop a supportable slab resting on weak facets. Avalanches triggered 1–2 feet deep could potentially step down to basal facets near the ground.
Above treeline, the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is decreasing. Strong northerly winds have stripped snow from many aspects, leaving dirt exposed on some slopes and a stout wind crust capping the weak layer on others. Combined with the early December and basal facets trending toward dormancy, the likelihood of avalanches is actively dropping. However, thin, rocky slopes should still be evaluated carefully.
We are actively working to refine the danger rose and identify the most suspect zones. Today, Dave is heading into the alpine to assess conditions and help determine when we can start considering terrain above treeline as low danger.
Additional Information
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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