BOTTOM LINE
Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)
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Danger Rose Tutorial
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Click here to see the newly revised North American Avalanche Danger Scale.
Blower powder has fallen on the mountains of SE Utah in a perfect storm that started out heavy and finished light. No slab avalanche activity has been observed and snowpit tests yesterday revealed no glaring weaknesses in the new snow. We have lowered the avalanche danger rating to CONSIDERABLE in the mountains of SE Utah, but after 14 inches of new snow, caution must still be exercised and local stability analysis performed in the field should you choose terrain steeper than 30 degrees to play on. |
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CURRENT CONDITIONS |
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14 inches of new snow has been measured in both the La Sal and Abajo mountains from this last storm. Skiing and Riding conditions are superb. Winds were up for 8 hours yesterday afternoon and evening so as usual, above treeline slopes may have some wind damage and wind slab development. Winds have since calmed down and are currently under 10 mph from the south in advance of yet another storm that is forecast to hit our region.
San Juan County Road crew was up yesterday and cleaned up access to the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Good work guys, thanks alot!
Grooming will have to wait, we should get our broken machine back this week. |
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RECENT ACTIVITY |
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Some dry loose activity noted on NE face of Tukno Saturday, things should get more interesting.
Nothing observed during our tour yesterday with limited visibility. |
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THREAT #1 |
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PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
48 hours.
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We're hovering just st the threshold for higher avalanche danger, but in snowpit tests yesterday we just didn't see severe reactivity in the new snow. There is a red dirt layer that was deposited with last week's high winds that you can see at the old/new snow interface. Keep an eye on this layer in your snowpits. We didn't find any really scary shears on this layer but you can't argue with 1.6 inches of water either. Wind slabs on upper elevation slopes remain an issue as well. Winds were up above the threshold values for 8 hours yesterday so this is a red flag as is 14 inches of snow and 1.6 inches of water. Things look solid, with the new snow starting out higher density and getting lighter and lighter, but don't be surprised when you see or create an avalanche after a storm like this. Human triggered avalanches are still possible. |
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THREAT #2 |
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PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
48 hours.
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We still have buried surface hoar layers that could be re-activated with the weight of the new snow. The first is now buried 2.5-3.5 feet down in the snow pack. The last is buried about 12-15 inches down (depending on the depth of wind drifting) and was formed during last week's high pressure. We are not used to dealing with this phenomena too often down here in SE Utah, and the instability regarding this persistent weak layers seems to be very long lasting. We dug down to the Feb. 1 surface hoar layer yesterday and found it to be very reactive still in several stability tests, although at 52" in depth, this layer in unlikely to be triggered by a skier. The higher layer at about 14 inches of depth, appeared to have been destroyed where we dug by last week's high winds and replaced with red dirt. Keep an eye out for for this second layer, it may not be destroyed at all elevations, and may still be found on E-NE-NW facing slopes from about 10,000 feet up to treeline. |
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER |
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National Weather Service Forecast for 10,000 Ft. :
Today:
Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a high near 29. South southeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tonight:
Snow. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 16. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday:
A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 25. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday Night:
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 11. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday:
A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery, with a north northeast wind between 15 and 20 mph.
Thursday Night:
Partly cloudy, with a low around 12.
Friday:
Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. |
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GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS |
We would like to thank the hard working volunteers at the Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. Without their help the center would not meet it's funding or staffing requirements. Thanks all! If you would like more information about donating to the Friends or simply helping out, click here..
This advisory will expire in 48 hours.
We cannot receive messages on our 259-SNOW line. If you would like to leave us an observation or a message, you my reach us at 435-636-3363. |
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. |
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This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:
The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list. |
